Dr. Deepa Pullanikkatil, NDC Coordinator
Ministry of Tourism and Environmental Affairs, Contracted through UNDP
We must close the emissions gap before climate catastrophe closes in on us all.
— UN Secretary-General António Guterres
Climate change impacts are seen throughout every aspect of the world we live in. In 2022 extreme weather events included 14 storm events (thunderstorms, hail, and/or tornadoes), six floods (including the one in Durban, South Africa), five droughts, three tropical cyclones, and one European windstorm. Damages were estimated to have cost 29 billion-dollar and still counting (Yale Climate Connections, 2022).
According to analysis done in Eswatini, there has been variation in inter annual rainfall since 1970 with an increase in average dry spell length and delayed onset of rainfall. Rapid increase in minimum temperatures across Eswatini with most significant warming between 2000 2020 have been experienced. There has been decrease in the frequency of cold nights (and frost where it occurs) and an increase in frequency of hot night and increased frequency of hot days over the last two decades with a greater number of days exceeding 34°C. We have experienced droughts, heatwaves and storms like many countries, bringing climate change as a personal experience rather than a far away global phenomenon.
Recently, the media was abuzz about the recent Sharm el-Sheikh Climate Change Conference where countries came together to take action towards achieving the world’s collective climate goals. At the Conference of Parties (COP) 27, which is the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27), an important report was presented. It is called the “Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window: Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies”. This was developed by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and calls for rapid transformation of societies provides an updated assessment of the gap between where we are heading in terms of global Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and where we need to be in 2030 to get on track towards the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. This year’s report emphasizes the urgency of transformation, with a specific focus on key sectors, food systems and financial systems.
The report shows that updated national pledges since COP26 – held in 2021 in Glasgow, UK – make a negligible difference to predicted 2030 emissions and that we are far from the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. It warns that despite calls for strengthened climate action, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (which are climate actions plans developed by countries) submitted since COP 26 take less than 1% off projected global emissions in 2030. Policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century, which is catastrophic in terms of climatic impacts the world could face. Implementation of the current pledges will only reduce this to a 2.4-2.6°C temperature rise by the end of the century, for conditional and unconditional pledges respectively.
The report finds that only an urgent system-wide transformation can deliver the enormous cuts needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions by 2030: 45 per cent compared with projections based on policies currently in place to get on track to 1.5°C and 30 per cent for 2°C. This report provides an in-depth exploration of how to deliver this transformation, looking at the required actions in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems.
The reason they called it “the closing window” is because the time for action to still have a liveable planet is closing fast. It appears that we are sliding from climate crisis to climate disaster. Inger Anderson, Executive Director of UNEP said, “This report sends us a very clear message. If we are serious about climate change, we need to kick start a system-wide transformation, now. We need a root-and-branch redesign of the electricity sector, of the transport sector, of the building sector and of food systems. And we need to reform financial systems so that they can bankroll the transformations we cannot escape. Even if we don’t get everything in place by 2030, we will be setting up the foundation for a carbon-neutral future: one that will allow us to bring down temperature overshoots and deliver other benefits, like green jobs, universal energy access and clean air.
So, I urge every nation, every government to pore over the solutions offered in this report and build them into their climate commitments. I urge the private sector to start reworking their practices accordingly. I urge every investor, public and private, to put their capital towards a net-zero world. This is how we can jam open the closing window for climate action and start to change our world for the better, for everyone.” Andersen said.
The graph in the report shows that without additional action, current policies lead to global warming of 2.8°C over this century (which is catastrophic for life on earth). Implementation of unconditional and conditional NDC (climate action plans of countries) scenarios reduce this to 2.6°C and 2.4°C respectively only (5% and 10% emissions reduction respectively). To have a liveable planet we need to reduce emissions to get to 1.5°C, which means 45% reduction in emissions.
With eight years left to bridge the emissions gap, the urgency of rapid emission reductions is clear. This report is a wake up call for us, so that we don’t want to see more and more climate induced disasters like what we have seen globally in 2022. In the report sections 5 and 6 gives information on how transformation can be accelerated and how each sector can play a role in this, As a first step, I would encourage everyone to download the report from UNEP website and familiarise themselves, next to pore over the solutions offered in this report and see how your organization, sector and the country as a whole can implement these solutions. Rapid transformation of societies starts with you and me being better informed of the climate crisis.
