Climate Change! Going Green! Environmental Sustainability! Renewable Energy!
These are words which are resounding in the country, region, Africa and internally- as many bodies seek urgent means to mitigate on climate change and its effects.
Eswatini has not been spared from the scourge of climate change and the country has also joined the world in mitigating the scourge.
Eswatini’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) continue to prioritise water, ecosystems and biodiversity, health, infrastructure, and agriculture. The climate change impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities are discussed below, in the context of the five prioritized sectors:
Climate Impacts
Eswatini’s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change highlighted several impacts of climate change the country has already experienced, noting that the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and heat waves have increased over the past few years (MTEA, 2016b). In addition, according to the Global Climate Change Regional Climate Model, representative concentration pathway 4.5, mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.8°C to 2.0°C in the period 2040–2069, impacting the country’s economy and society (Dlamini, 2021).
Water
There is growing evidence of the effects of climate change in the water sector of Eswatini. Historical trends show the annual average temperature has increased by 3°C between 1961 and 2020. The frequency of heat waves has increased in the last two decades, with more days exceeding 34°C. These changes have reduced stream flows in main river basins, increased the prevalence of waterborne diseases due to reductions in water quality, and increased the frequency of droughts and floods. For example, during the 2015–2016 El Niño, water sources and rainfall received declined by more than 50% (Government of Eswatini, 2016b). Drying of small streams and wetlands is gradually altering biodiversity and ecosystems. The vulnerability assessment in the water sector conducted in 2016 projected that the streamflow of rivers would decrease by 40% by 2050 due to climate change. The variability of rainfall and the proliferation of invasive alien species is accelerating the drying of these streams.
Ecosystems and Biodiversity
Climate change has contributed to biome shift, habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, species loss and extinction, reduction in dispersal patterns, species migration, increased wildfire incidents, encroachment, a decline in genetic resources, a growing list of threatened and vulnerable species, and a decline in indigenous forests. These climate impacts have subsequently affected ecosystem services, livelihoods, ecotourism opportunities, and traditional medicine availability.
Health
Scientific evidence shows an increase in vector-borne and waterborne diseases, which is attributed to poor hygiene and sanitation practices due to extreme weather events (flooding and water scarcity). Encroachment of vector-borne disease (malaria) has been evident in the Middleveld, and this encroachment has been more prevalent in the Lowveld. Climate-induced mental conditions (influenced by forced migration, displacement, and shifting sector dependency, in terms of agriculture) have been reported. Anecdotal evidence in Eswatini indicates increases in deaths due to heat stress–related disease and extreme weather events (including lightning, flooding, snake bites, drowning, and heatstroke).
Infrastructure
Since 2001, the country has been hit seven times by drought (the most recent being the El Niño– induced drought in 2015–2016) and five times by extreme storm events, with the most recent (Tropical Cyclone Eloise) occurring in January 2021. The Rapid Assessment Report noted that Tropical Cyclone Eloise resulted in an estimated economic loss of about SZL 182 million, a result of extensive flooding that led to widespread damage to built infrastructure and utility networks, loss of lives and livelihoods, and environmental degradation (National Disaster Management Agency, 2021). In addition, the drainage systems of many cities, such as Mbabane, are increasingly failing to cope with heavy rainfall and flood episodes.
Agriculture
Evidence reveals that the country has experienced shifts in the planting season, as well as frequent and unfavourable incidences of food insecurity that were largely attributed to droughts and extended dry spells. Significant rainfall deficits or cessation at critical stages of crop growth have frequently led to a serious shortfall in crop production, especially maize, the stable crop in Eswatini (Mhlanga-Ndlovu & Nhamo, 2016). Wildfires, reduced rainfall with lengthy dry spells and increased evaporation, increased frequency and intensity of floods and storms, and increased temperatures will all negatively impact the agriculture sector of Eswatini, where about 75% of the population is rural and practices subsistence farming. Prospects for the livestock sector are mixed as the sector continues to be vulnerable to erratic weather conditions, with some areas even becoming semi-arid, and to be impacted by diseases brought by climate change. The 2015–2016 El Niño event led to a high livestock mortality rate of about 8% in Eswatini, at an estimated value of SZL 264 million (> USD 20 million; Government of Eswatini, 2016b; Tfwala et al., 2020).
(Intro by Phumelele Mkhonta)
(Information sourced from The Kingdom of Eswatini’s Initial Adaptation Communication to the UNFCCC)
