BY DR. WISDOM MDUMISENI DLAMINI
Eswatini has achieved significant progress in overall socio-economic development over the years. However, the economy is prone to external shocks as well as internal fiscal challenges. Furthermore,climate change impacts experienced by communities and ecosystems continues to be a threat to these development gains.
The situation is further complicated by the low climate resilience of the country’s natural and human systems. With the Eswatini Government elevating climate change concerns to the national agenda, data from various sources has been leveraged to understand the risks posed by climate change and where populations and infrastructure may be especially vulnerable. The avoidance of adverse impacts of climate change-driven hazards and related disasters as well as minimizing the costs associated with disaster relief and response requires an understanding of the associated risks.
Climate vulnerability relates to people’s exposure to climate impacts like flooding or drought, but also to personal and social factors that affect their ability to cope with and respond to extreme events. High climate risk coincides with areas of social and economic inequalities. The vulnerability profile in the country indicates that 60% of the population have moderate to high vulnerability to climate-driven hazards. This vulnerability is largely driven by the underlying socio-economic conditions, predominantly poverty. Especially striking are the large parts of the country, where high levels of vulnerability seem to be prevalent, most likely related to the low-income rural and peripheral economic characteristics of the country. Poverty drastically reduces the adaptive capacity of households.
The Shiselweni and Lubombo regions represent socio-economic vulnerability hotspots. For instance, the two regions have 50.9% and 52.5% of their population with high vulnerability, respectively. This seems plausible since these regions have been historically characterized as socio-economic flashpoints in many studies. In contrast, the Hhohho regions, respectively, have only 13.9% and 25.5% of the population having high vulnerability. The urban areas, protected area, private ranches, forest and sugarcane plantations have notable low vulnerability levels. This highlights the fact that the livelihoods of the people in these areas are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Urban, Peri-urban and sugarcane zones have notably low vulnerability because these are areas typically characterized by improved levels of employment and income compared to rural areas.
KEY CLIMATE TRENDS
There is strong evidence that the average land-surface temperature has increased markedly across the country over the last four decades with the two decades post-2000 being the warmest. The spatial distribution of temperature increases is uneven and some areas have experienced greater change than others. The largest trends, of up to 0.38 °C per decade, are observed over the western part (Highveld) of the country. This indicates that the mountainous Highveld is warming faster than the rest of the country, a phenomenon termed “elevation dependent warming’ (EDW). Considering the global trends, this indicates that a 1°C increase in global temperatures translates to 1.5 to 2°C in Eswatini.
However, changes in rainfall are typically harder to detect because rainfall has higher spatial and interannual variability compared to temperature. For Eswatini, the rainfall time series is characterized by strong inter-annual and inter-decadal variability with periods of above and below average rainfall, for example 1984/2000 and 1991-92/2015-16 respectively. The alternating patterns of above normal/below normal rainfall periods clearly illustrate the rainfall cycles prevalent in southern Africa where extreme wet and dry years have been recorded, which resulted in floods and droughts. There is little evidence from the time series of a substantial overall wetting or drying trend over the period. There is, however, a weak signal of negative change particularly in the north-western part of the country as well as to the south-east and along the Lubombo mountain range.
As a result of the observed changes in climate trends, there are subsequent increases in the intensity and geographic impact of drought, tropical storms, floods, fires, invasive species, heatwaves, landslides/slope movements and epidemics/pandemics.
PREVALENT HAZARDS IN ESWATINI
The following climate-driven hazards were identified:
Droughts: Eswatini is most affected by droughts, caused by low precipitation and increase in temperature. These extreme weather events threaten the country’s water availability. The 2020 State of the Environment Report estimated that 14% (180,000 people) of the country’s population is potentially affected by drought and it is likely to become 33% in 2050. An average of 15% of GDP (0.5billion USD) is potentially affected by droughts which is expected to rise to 41% in 2050.
Recurring droughts and reduced availability of water is a severe setback to the agriculture sector as majority of the farming community here practice rainfed subsistence agriculture. More than 95% of the country’s water use is diverted towards irrigation of large commercial farms. Changes in temperature and precipitation have reduced the surface volume in dams, which has affected water availability.Planning and construction of small to medium sized dams will help expand smallholder irrigation. It will facilitate subsistence farmers to transition to commercial cultivation on Swazi National Land.
Droughts negatively affect livestock as well, causing mortality and disease outbreaks. El Nino induced droughts in 2015-16 resulted in the loss of 14% of total livestock and a 67% drop in maize production from the previous year (Government of Eswatini, 2020). Fall in agricultural production heightens food insecurity among people and increases risk to drought related diseases and conditions such as diarrhoea, skin condition and malnutrition. Biodiversity and ecosystems are sensitive to environmental factors and recurrent droughts create unfavourable conditions, adversely affecting the inhabiting floral and faunal species. Therefore, early detection of drought can prevent the hazard from becoming ecological and humanitarian crises.
Floods: Eswatini is already exposed to devastating urban floods. This hazard is predicted to increase in future and occur at least once in the next 10 years, particularly in Hhohho and Manzini regions. According to the State of the Environment Report, 2020, yearly, an estimated 1500 people are affected by floods in Eswatini. Floods accounted for direct economic loss of 12 million USD i.e., almost 0.09% of total economy. Unregulated land use change, such as construction on flood plains and wetlands are significant drivers of flooding, particularly in the context of erratic rainfall patterns. Heavy rains and poor drainage were identified as the main reasons for the 2020 flash floods in Mbabane. In this situation, rapid land use changes in urban areas of Mbabane river catchment, increased sediment runoff that blocked drainage systems.
Critical infrastructure in education is also severely affected during floods that prevents children from attending school. In terms of health impacts, flood hazard damages infrastructure as well as catalyses certain diseases. Freshwater contamination during floods affects drinking water availability that may cause water borne diseases. Water stagnation during floods also creates opportunities for breeding disease carrying insects such as mosquitoes.
Heatwaves & dry spells: Eswatini is highly affected by heat waves as a result of increase in mean temperature and total number of hotter days. This translates to poor health outcomes as people are exposed to heat stress. It is identified as one of the significant contributors of death by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Elderly people are particularly vulnerable to heat stress. Heatwaves also affect agriculture as crops are sensitive to thermal factors. Extreme heat also affects livestock by reducing animal activity, feeding, growth and productivity.
Storms (including lightning and hailstorms): Between 2001-18, Eswatini was hit 4 times by storms (windstorms, thunderstorms, hailstorms, lightning, and cyclones). One of the worst storms to hit the country was in 2005 that affected 100,000 people and destroyed dwellings and communal facilities. These hazards are predicted to increase in future. Storms and lightning may result in floods and fire respectively.
- Windstorms: Lubombo region is deeply affected by windstorms. Eswatini recorded 522 incidents of windstorms in the year 2018-2019 alone.
- Thunderstorm: Highveld region has strong thunderstorms with a high incidence of thunderstorm occurrence every year. Eswatini has recorded one of the world’s highest annual average fatality rates of 15.5 people per million.
- Hailstorms and cyclones: The incidence of hailstorms has increased over the years. They damage cultivated crops and destroy vegetation. This hazard is expected to cause damage to infrastructure too.
- Lightning: Eswatini has one of the highest incidences of lightning. The number of lightning deaths per capita in Eswatini is 15.5 fatalities per million people. (SOER 147) Fire incidents caused by lightning can cause wildfires and destroy infrastructure.
Fires: Eswatini has seen a rise in wildfires, with at least two large ones occurring between 2001- 2018 that caused great economic, human, and environmental loss. Wildfires are caused by anthropogenic activities such as clearing weeds in cultivated fields, harvesting of honey by communities, management of grazing resources to stimulate new growth etc. In addition to this, drier and longer winters as well as heat waves have increasingly contributed to frequent wildfires.
Landslides/Slope movements: Flood and storm incidence have catalysed the occurrence of landslides, causing enormous danger to human life and property. For instance, tropical cyclone Eloise caused mudslides and landslides in Mncitsini, Manzana, Mangwaneni, Mpolonjeni and other locations in Eswatini in early 2021. It devastated many households and caused deaths. Overgrazing and deforestation are significant reasons for soil erosion that leads to landslides during floods and storms.
Invasive species: Climate change and variability in the form of increasing temperatures has created favourable conditions for rapid growth and survival of Invasive Alien Plant Species (IAPS). Along with this, activities such as overstocking that leads to overgrazing, disrupt local food cycles that keep a check on the growth of invasive plants and bushes. Today, 95% of the terrestrial ecosystem is suspected to be invaded by 16 such species such as Chromolaena odorata, Solanum mauritianum, Caesalpinia decapetala and Lantana camara. Such species threaten the genetic composition, phylogenetic and functional diversity of indigenous biodiversity. Negative effects are also felt on livestock and crop production, and water availability (Government of Eswatini, 2020).
Epidemics/Diseases (incl. Snakebite envenomation): Eswatini is at risk of epidemic outbreaks triggered by a series of factors. Higher incidence of floods increases the occurrence of water borne diseases, cholera, and malaria. Droughts may induce acute malnourishment of children under five years of age, lactating and pregnant women, and other vulnerable groups. Disasters may give rise to incidence of sexually transmitted infection (STI) including the transmission of HIV through negative coping strategies.
Eswatini is also the home to several venomous snake species such as the puff adder (Bitis arietans), Mozambique spitting cobra (Naja mossambica) and the black mamba (Dendroaspis polylepis). The close proximity of rural habitation to these snake species puts the people at risk of snakebites. Each year, Eswatini records approximately 200-400 cases of snakebite envenoming cases.[1]
With all these hazards, it is evident that Eswatini is facing multiple developmental and environmental challenges which may slow the country’s attainment of the sustainable development goals and other national developmental targets. The observed natural hazards and climate events are ever changing and intensifying. Coupled with that, the COVID-19 pandemic also exacerbated some of the country socio-economic challenges. As the country faced and put efforts to respond to developmental issues, there is also a need to address and integrate climate change if we are to ensure a sustainable future.
[1] World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/community-engagement-drives-snakebite-control-in-eswatini: Accesses on 5th Auguste 2021
