By Dr. Deepa Pullanikkatil
(NDC Coordinator, MTEA contracted through UNDP)
Africa is prone to multiple hazards, with hydro-meteorological hazards of floods, droughts and dry-spells being the most common ones. Such shocks require countries to be prepared with early warning systems in order to cope. With climate-related disasters displacing more people than conflict, UN Secretary-General António Guterres at COP 27 in Egypt unveiled the details of his plan to ensure everyone on the planet is protected by early warning systems within the next five years. He stated that people who have barely even contributed to the climate crisis are the most at risk and the least protected. “Vulnerable communities in climate hotspots are being blindsided by cascading climate disasters without any means of prior alert,” he said. “People in Africa, South Asia, South and Central America, and the inhabitants of small island states are 15 times more likely to die from climate disasters. These disasters displace three times more people than war. And the situation is getting worse.” Even though early warning systems save lives, vulnerable communities “have no way of knowing that hazardous weather is on its way”, Mr. Guterres continued. He then went on to launch an ambitious $3.1 billion plan which will address key gaps in understanding disaster risk, monitoring and forecasting, rapid communication, and preparedness and response at COP 27 in November 2022.
In this article, I want to reiterate that while modern high tech early warning systems are needed, we must not forget the traditional indigenous knowledge systems which have been helping communities predict extreme weather events and seasons, as these too are important to early warning. As we all know, early warning is a major element of disaster risk reduction. It can prevent loss of life and reduce the economic and material impacts of hazardous events including disasters. As a continent, we are not facing a single hazard; we face multiple hazards that interplay with each other. In Eswatini, we have been recently hit hard by El Nino drought, wildfires, floods, cyclones idai, cyclone Eloise and covid-19.
One major lesson COVID 19 has taught us is the need to develop multi-hazard risk scenarios with the ability to consider the interactions between pandemics and other natural hazards, such as storms, floods, cyclones, wildfires and all hydro- meteorological hazards. While we have all the sophisticated technology, modelling, satellite imagery, super computers and equipment, we must not forget the role of Indigenous knowledge.
There are many examples from around the world where indigenous knowledge has helped communities. For example, there are a few islands in India where indigenous communities live. There is one particular tribe called the “Jharavas” who live in Andaman and Nicobar islands. They are completely isolated from all modern services and they live one with nature in the island. Their population is 1000 people. On a part of the island there is a settlement with tourist centres, settlements a small town and a naval base with sophisticated technology, sensors and computers and early warning systems.
In 2004 December, there was a Sumatra-Andaman tsunami, which caused destruction to the island. Trees along the cost were stripped out, the equipment and early warning systems were destroyed, 6000 people died, infrastructure damaged. Later studies confirmed that not a single member from the Jharava tribe lost their life. Hours before the Tsunami, the tribe members were found to be all climbing up the mountains in the island and were not affected by the tsunami and they were safe, without any sophisticated technology. They just keenly observed and listened to nature, used their indigenous knowledge and that is what kept them safe.
In Malawi, I have met several rural communities that observe the phenology of trees, the position of birds’ nests, the wind patterns, animals and insects behaviours and predict the weather based on that. There is a tree species Faidherbia Albeida, which exhibits reverse phenology. When other trees have leaves, this one sheds its leaves and when others shed, this tree grows its leaves. Farmers love this tree because it does not compete with crops in the growing season for soil nutrients and provides fodder for animals during dry season, so while you find there is rampant deforestation in Malawi to make way for cropland, there are old faidherbia albeida trees, which are 80-90 year old are preserved within crop lands. Farmers say that delayed shedding off of leaves signifies late onset of rains. This helps farmers make decisions to delay planting, or dry plant and wait for rains.
Similarly, the Sunbird tree or Wild Mango is observed and when it has less flowers, it’s a signal of a drought year. The flowering and eventual fruiting is affected by climate variations and water stress thereby being an indicator of drought. These communities are clever and they don’t base their prediction on just one observation. Their predictions are based on a number of indicators, not just one but four or five indicators, so that probability of error is minimized. And they make decisions on whether to plant drought tolerant crops, fast maturing varieties or tubers based on their prediction. So, in conclusion, while we focus on multi-hazard, early warning and high technology, let’s also respect and learn from the tradition and indigenous knowledge, there is much we can learn from those who live close to nature.
