BY MBONGENI NDLELA
MBABANE – The secondary sector will grow by 5.8 percent in 2024, government has predicted.
Minister of Economic Planning and Development Dr. Thambo Gina says the secondary sector, which comprises manufacturing, electricity and water supply, and construction activities is estimated to have grown by 1.4 percent in the January Review 2024, which is a downward revision from 2.7 percent in the September 2023 projections.
However, the downward revision in the secondary sector was at the back of a decrease in electricity supply and a slowdown in construction activities.
The minister has disclosed that in 2024, the secondary sector is projected to grow by 5.8 percent, in line with previous projections. This will be supported by growth in manufacturing activities, envisaged a record 3.8 percent in 2024 at the back of an anticipated rebound in the sugar industry.
“Additionally, construction activity is expected to increase by 32.8 percent (unchanged from previous projections), benefiting from earmarked implementation of mega projects. The further improvement in SACU inflows for the 2024/25 fiscal is expected to ease some cashflow challenges and fast-track the implementation of ongoing capital infrastructure projects, thereby supporting growth in the construction and related subsectors. In the medium term, the secondary sector is projected to average 3.7 percent from a previous average of 2.7 percent indicating a much-improved outlook for the manufacturing and construction subsectors,” he stated.
The minister explained that recent data depicts a marginal 0.8 percent decline in electricity supply compared to a previous forecast of 8.3 percent (in September 2023) as hydro power generation was curtailed by the maintenance of some generation plants, which led to a halt in production in some parts of the fourth quarter of 2023.
“Construction activities, on the other hand, are estimated to have increased by 4 percent relative to the 17.9 percent projected in September 2023. The slowdown is largely attributed to a slow implementation rate on existing projects and delays in the commencement of new mega projects (such as MNWAP). The growth in overall manufacturing output was unchanged from the previous projections of 1.2 percent in 2023 as downward revisions on agro-processing (i.e. sugar) were fully offset by upward revisions in other manufacturing lines, notably ‘manufacturing of beverages,” stated the minister.
4% GROWTH ON TERTIARY SECTOR
MBABANE – Government has projected growth in 2024 in the tertiary sector.
The tertiary sector is composed of all services such as ‘wholesale and retail, transport, information communication and technology (ICT), financial services, tourism activities, government services and other services.
According to a statement released by the Ministry of Economic Planning and Development in collaboration with the Central Bank of Eswatini, growth in the tertiary sector has been revised upwards to 8.2 percent in 2023 compared to a previous projection of 6.7 percent.
Minister Thambo Gina stated that the upward revision was on account of a stronger than previously anticipated rebound in the ICT and financial services subsectors.
“In addition, there was an acceleration in the economic activity for tourism activities and wholesale and retail subsectors relative to previous projections,” the minister said.
He continued: “The ICT subsector is estimated to have grown by 17.3 percent in 2023, owing to continued infrastructural investment in the form of increases in base stations aimed at increasing access to network coverage. The financial services subsector is estimated to have expanded by 13.4 percent in 2023, which is significantly higher than the previously projected 5.6 percent, in September 2023. The upward revision is supported by a higher than previously projected growth in banking and insurance activities. An upward revision was also observed in the ‘wholesale and retail subsector, with the output for this subsector estimated to have increased by 6.0 percent in 2023, against an earlier projection of 3.9 percent. Growth in the wholesale and retail’ subsector benefitted from increased spending on goods and services, in the second half of the year, in support of national activities including National Elections, Double Celebration, and hosting of the SACU Summit amongst others, as well as easing pressures on real disposable incomes following the awarding of cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for both public and private sector employees,”
The minister stated that the tertiary sector is projected to grow by 4.0 percent mainly supported by ICT, transport and storage, professional services, and tourism activities subsectors.
He said the ICT subsector is expected to continue its infrastructural investment i.e., the introduction of wireless ICT technology, fibre network, and the potential rollout of a 5G network.
“Tourism-related activities are expected to remain on a recovery path and reach pre-COVID-19 levels within the medium term. Developments in the primary and secondary sectors earmarked for the medium term are expected to support growth in other services such as transport and storage, wholesale and retail, professional services, and financial services amongst others, thereby supporting growth for the tertiary sector at large. The average growth for the tertiary sector in the medium term is 3.3 percent,”
